The world is dying, and so am I

So that's it. What's been put in motion cannot be stopped: the world is dying. Now that "scientists" finally agree that the earth is warming and that warming (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) over the past 100 years is being caused by increased emissions of "greenhouse" gases, most notably carbon dioxide and methane (others include NOx gases and CFC's, which are actually 10's of thousands times more "effective" as trapping heat as CO2, but are not nearly as responsible for warming due to much lower concentrations in the atmosphere), some scientists are saying that even if we significantly reduce emissions of those gases now, the world is still heading for a place it has never been before. Consider this: climate models project additional warming of about 7-8 C over the next hundred years. The difference between the last ice age and today's climate: a whopping 6 degrees centigrade.

If you think global warming just means longer growing seasons (convenient) and less of a need for heating oil, as some oil companies have brazenly said in the past (some have gone so far as to say global warming will actually increase quality of life), here are some things we can expect to see, not in the next few centuries, but within just one:

Ever been to the Maldives? No? Then you probably won't ever. The entire country does not climb more than 8 feet out of the sea, with 80% if its land lying less than 39 inches above sea level. It's disappearing by the day. Why? Check out the Arctic ice. Well, look at pictures of it that were taken decades ago, because it's almost non-existent. Also, if you remember anything from chemistry, you know that the density of water decreases as temperature increases. So the same gram of water will actually take up more space as it gets warmer. Though the difference is small, compound that by the millions of cubic miles of water in our oceans, and we have an additional factor in rising sea levels. And the Maldives aren't the worst example. Check out Tonga and the Galapagos. Oh, and the American coast too, while you're at it.

Speaking of arctic ice (or the lack thereof), polar bears probably won't make it past the turn of the 22nd century. That's because the bears hunt by waiting near holes in ice for seals to come up for air. When they do, they're lunch. But there are now more holes in the ice, if there is ice, than the bears can cover. It's simply a game of statistics, and the bears face long odds.

Europe will get colder, and you won't want to swim at the Jersey Shore.

Why?

Anybody see The Day After Tomorrow? Despite the ridiculous nature of the movie, it did have one thing right. With melting polar ice and an increase in global temperature, the Atlantic thermohaline (heat and salt) circulation will shut down. The circulation, which includes the Gulf Stream, exists because of differences in temperature and salinity of the oceans. With the change in temperature and influx of fresh water in the north because of the melting ice, the circulation will slow and, within 200 years, it's estimated, completely stop. And while the North Atlantic cools, middle latitudes will heat even more rapidly because cold water is no longer circulating back to them. The results, I presume, will be catastrophic.

For those of you born without the ability to comprehend or care about future happenings, here are some things that are happening now:

Last year, the temperature in the Gulf of Mexico was 2 DEGREES above average. The result: the most destructive hurricane in American history. The facts speak for themselves - the most names hurricanes ever, the most category 5's ever... the list goes on. It's important to note that warming, so far, does not seem to influence the number of tropical depressions that form, it does strongly impact the strength of those storms, and as the earth gets warmer, we can expect storms to get bigger and worse.

When before in history was West Nile Virus a threat to residents of New England? As global temperatures rise, so will the spread (and likely lethalness) of infectious diseases will increase. Perhaps disease will end up being the great equalizer to the burgeoning world population. Time will tell.

I speak on this subject with very little authority - just an intro environmental studies course and articles I read online, but I do know this: Easter Island's population was wiped out by a tragedy of the commons. Famous for its haunting statues, Easter Island today is barely vegetated. So how did a civilization of 6 - 20,000 people move these near-100-ton statues as far as 6 miles from the quarries where they were sculpted to the coastlines - without wheels or ropes - more than a millennium ago? The answer is that Easter Island used to be lushly vegetated, perhaps even supporting a dense rainforest.

So what happened to the forest and the advanced ancient civilization? I can tell you that one was wiped out before the other. By examining pollen records, archaeologists have documented a systemic decrease in vegetation, chronologically branching out further and further from populated areas. Easter Islanders simply consumed their forests until they were gone. And then so were the islanders. The lesson here isn't buried very deep.

There is some hope, however, and it's coming from those very same polar bears whose species in under threat of extinction. As a matter of fact, it's exactly because of that threat that turns might be made in the right direction; the Bush administration is currently reviewing whether or not polar bears should be given "threatened species" status. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11233316/) If the bears are listed, law requires that regulatory decisions must be made to help protect them. Since their greatest threat comes from global warming, the listing would have a definite impact on greenhouse gas emitting industries or, say, decisions regulating fuel efficiency standards for vehicles. It seems fitting to me, given the strength majesty of these bears, that they're the ones fighting back.

So what is my point of writing all of this? In a way, it's self-serving: these issues have been weighing on my mind heavily for the past few months, and I just really felt like writing about them. But also, awareness has to be raised, and a sense of urgency needs to be felt about the condition of the earth we live on. Unfortunately, I have no illusions about the power of a single individual in the scope of global health - you can live in the dark, reuse all your glass bottles and recycle all your paper, walk to work every day, and still not make a difference. I'm not asking anyone to do that. I don't. But we need pressure on the auto and other industries and on the government: not to reduce output, but to reduce consumption by using new technology and a little bit of common sense. A 800 pound car made of carbon fiber is as strong and safe as a 5000 pound behemoth, and runs exponentially more efficiently. As a result, those huge tanks needed to store hydrogen that are really restricting the implementation of fuel cells in vehicles won't be needed, because not as much fuel will be required. That's just one example. Amory B. Lovins, author of Winning the Oil Endgame lives in a home in Colorado heated not by oil, but by the heat produced by its inhabitants and the byproduct of some home appliances, like the refrigerator. It's that efficient. It's not that extreme. As a matter of fact, building an Amory house hardly costs more (in come cases less) than a conventional home, because a heating system, which costs thousands, is not required.

It's time to make some decisions. The issues of global health can no longer be put off for later generations to deal with. Some people will say reducing carbon emissions will be devastating to the economy. Not so. Besides, what was the economic effect of Hurricane Katrina? What will be the economic effect of the next global pandemic, facilitated by warmer temperatures? Then factor in the human toll. We can no longer sit back and watch as we destroy our planet, species by species, glacier by glacier. The time for action is now.